Hurricane Irma

Hurricane Irma: Friday, September 8, 2017 5:00am EDT Advisory 37

 

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Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 38A (Abbreviated)
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

…EYE OF HURRICANE IRMA MONITORED BY HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES AND
CUBAN RADARS…
…HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.0N 76.0W
ABOUT 225 MI…365 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 380 MI…610 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…155 MPH…250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…925 MB…27.31 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Venice
* Florida Keys

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and
Villa Clara
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Jupiter Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line
* North of Bonita Beach to Anclote River
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was
located by a reconnaissance plane and Cuban radars near latitude
22.0 North, longitude 76.0 West. Irma has been moving toward the
west near 14 mph (22 km/h), but the hurricane should resume a
west-northwest motion later today. A turn toward the northwest is
expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma
should continue to move near the north coast of Cuba and the central
Bahamas for the rest of today and Saturday, and be near the Florida
Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
to continue during the next day or two, and Irma is expected to
remain a powerful category 4 hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 925 mb (27.31 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide…

SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable…6 to 12 ft
Jupiter Inlet to Cape Sable including the Florida Keys…5 to 10 ft
Ponce Inlet to Jupiter Inlet…3 to 6 ft
Venice to Captiva…3 to 6 ft

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Turks and Caicos Islands…15 to 20 ft
Southeastern and central Bahamas…15 to 20 ft
Northwestern Bahamas…5 to 10 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave…1 to 3 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area…5 to 10 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are still occurring in portions of the
southeastern Bahamas and these conditions will continue to spread
westward over the central Bahamas later today. Hurricane conditions
are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the
north coast of Cuba through Saturday. Hurricane conditions are
expected in the northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and in
portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys Saturday night or
early Sunday.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Florida
by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday night:

Dominican Republic and Haiti…additional 1 to 4 inches.
Turks and Caicos…additional 2 to 4 inches.
Southern Bahamas and northern Cuba…10 to 15 inches, isolated 20
inches.
Southern Cuba…4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Jamaica…1 to 2 inches.
The upper Florida Keys into southeast Florida…10 to 15 inches,
isolated 20 inches.
Lower Florida Keys…4 to 8 inches.
Eastern Florida northward into coastal Georgia…8 to 12 inches,
isolated 16 inches.
Western Florida peninsula…4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

Much of Georgia…South Carolina…and Western North Carolina…3 to
6 inches.

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and, in some areas, mudslides.

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Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes
indicate that Irma’s intensity remains at 130 kt, although this
value could be 5 kt higher or lower. The central pressure has been
oscillating around 927 mb.

The environment continues to be favorable for Irma to maintain its
category 4 status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles
could result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours.
Nevertheless, the NHC forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a
category 4 hurricane. Thereafter, interaction with land and an
increase in shear should induce gradual weakening.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane and will
continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards to the Bahamas through Saturday. Hurricane conditions will
spread over portions of the north coast of Cuba, especially over the
adjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday.

2. Irma is likely to make landfall in Florida as a dangerous major
hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of
the state regardless of the exact track of the center.

3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in
southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next 36 hours,
where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. In particular, the threat
of significant storm surge flooding along the southwest coast of
Florida has increased, and 6 to 12 feet of inundation above ground
level is possible in this area. This is a life-threatening
situation. Everyone in these areas should take all actions to
protect life and property from rising water and follow evacuation
instructions from local officials.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.
Total rain accumulations of 4 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of
20 inches are expected over the Florida peninsula Saturday through
Monday. The highest amounts are expected over the eastern Florida
peninsula and upper Florida Keys. Irma will likely bring periods of
heavy rain to much of Georgia, South Carolina, and western North
Carolina early next week, including some mountainous areas which are
more prone to flash flooding. All areas seeing heavy rainfall from
Irma will experience a risk of flooding and flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 22.0N 75.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 22.4N 77.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 22.8N 79.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 23.7N 80.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 25.0N 81.0W 125 KT 145 MPH…NEAR THE COAST
72H 11/1200Z 29.3N 82.3W 65 KT 75 MPH…INLAND
96H 12/1200Z 34.0N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
120H 13/1200Z 36.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

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Irma continues as a dangerous Category 4 Hurricane.

If Irma follows the predicted track, the central core of the Hurricane will pass just to the West of the Dacula area sometime around 2:00am Tuesday September 12, 2017. This puts Dacula and Gwinnett County on the east side (the most dangerous side) of the hurricane. Residents and visitors can expect heavy rain and wind bands  that might reach 35-50mph.

Residents and visitors should complete all emergency preparations for family and friends by sunset on Sunday, September 10, 2017. Some of those activities include:

  • Stocking foods that don’t need to be cooked or refrigerated
  • Stocking potable water for 3 days
  • Making sure you have enough gasoline to last for at least 3 days
  • Tying down or securing objects around your home to keep them from becoming missles
  • Checking storm drains and drainage ditches near your property to make sure they are not clogged
  • Become aware of the potential for falling branches and trees near your home
  • Obtaining batteries and charging portable devices
  • Listen to weather forecasts and public announcements about the weather situation
  • Obtaining and packing important documents so that they are handy if you should have to leave your property
  • Filling necessary prescriptions for drugs you may need